A digital future for military logistics

By Carolina Cipres, Dr. Teresa de la Cruz and Dr. Sara Sanchez

ISDEFE, the Spanish Defence Ministry’s engineering consultancy, recently commissioned to ZLC a forward-looking study of current and emerging trends and technologies as they may affect military logistics.

Armed conflict is, sadly, a great stimulator and accelerator of technical advances, as we are seeing in the Ukraine with the development of drones, robots and other vehicles for air, ground and reportedly marine applications. ‘Sharp end’ innovations capture the imagination but as experienced military people have always known, long-term front line effectiveness can only be as good as its supply lines: Wellington’s success in Spain is often attributed (including by the Duke himself) to the efficiency of his Quartermaster staff, and indeed, ‘logistics’ as a discipline was originally a military concept.

Yet military logistics appears to receive surprisingly little research attention, even allowing for the secrecy that tends to shroud military affairs. But supplying armed forces isn’t just a special case of civilian practice. The terminology – procurement, demand forecasting, inventory control, storage and transportation, even ‘returns’ (casualty evacuation, recovering damaged equipments) – is superficially similar but hides very different circumstances and constraints. Civilian operators can reasonably assume that most people are trying to be helpful (although some truck drivers may disagree!) – in war, the ‘baggage train’ and its infrastructure (which nowadays includes its cyber and communications elements) is a natural target for the ill-disposed.

Armed forces around the world are beginning to develop strategies for using new technologies to improve the performance and resilience of the logistics tail. For our study we focused on four countries: the US, UK, France and Germany. (Whilst the environment is rapidly changing – three of these countries have recently changed leadership, and defence procurement plans nationally and at EU, EDA, NATO levels are in flux – this doesn’t really change the underlying technological direction of travel).

Quite a range of technologies are being planned or deployed. Unmanned vehicles (‘drones’) have a long military history in, for example, bomb disposal, but are increasingly being developed to deliver food, ammunition, medical and other supplies to the front line, and for CASEVAC, as well as for real-time intelligence gathering which can see through ‘the fog of war’ and inform logistics operations.

Other technologies are impinging. Secure, reliable and large-scale communication is of course vital – in the UK we noted moves to put whole bases onto 5G networks. As in civilian practice, performing some logistics operations as close as possible to the point of use has its attractions: the US has been using 3D printing to produce spare/replacement components closer (in space and time) to the need, secured and certified through the use of blockchain. New advanced materials, such as biotechnologies as applied to textiles, may require or enable changes in logistics practice.

Naturally there is a big focus on planning – demand estimation, inventory management models, resource allocation, transport and route planning. These are challenging enough in peacetime, not least because democracies are reluctant to invest in supplies and facilities that everyone hopes will never be needed. In times of conflict, the old adage remains true: “the plan is the first casualty of contact with the enemy”. Real time analysis and response is vital.

This strongly indicates that the technology with the greatest leverage or disruptive potential (and indeed one on which many other developments will depend) is Artificial Intelligence (AI).

AI and Machine Learning (ML) are already establishing roles in, for example, predictive maintenance (so, for example, a jet engine can be swapped out based on real condition rather than a crude measure of hours in service). But in the future, the integration of AI in military logistics will revolutionize supply chain management, optimize resource allocation, and improve decision-making.

AI's ability to use Big Data systems to analyze vast amounts of data for emerging situations and future trends can help armies anticipate needs more accurately, ensuring supplies reach their destination at the right time and place.

AI can supply real-time analysis for decision-making, increasing armies' ability to adapt to rapidly changing conditions on the ground. This is very relevant to logistics operations – supplies may need to be rerouted ‘on the fly’ if the enemy is shelling a route or has blown a bridge, but we also need analysis of what his next target may be.

That includes identification of patterns and trends not evident to human analysts. Machine Learning algorithms can find hidden correlations and generate actionable information to inform strategic and tactical decisions. For example, AI could help anticipate logistical bottlenecks or identify potential supply chain disruptions before they occur (not just those caused by enemy action). Finally, prescriptive analytics will enable the application of AI-driven simulation models to generate alternative scenarios and evaluate the most effective solutions to address them, creating more resilient logistics.

But making the most of these new technologies does raise challenges for armed forces, and not just their logisticians. There is, for example, a balance to be struck between automation and human expertise – sometimes the gut feeling of an experienced field commander may indeed be preferable to the AI response, particularly perhaps if something unconventional is proposed.

Cybersecurity is an increasing concern. We see what teenage hackers can do to retail supply chains: comparable disruption in the manufacture or supply of military materiél could be catastrophic. Ethical issues are less obvious than in the case of autonomous weapons systems, but as soon as, for example, a delivery drone is given a self-defence capability, they will arise.

There is more generally a need to train the ‘workforce’, which of course contains substantial civilian as well as military components, in the current and potential uses and misuses of AI in the military logistics context. Effective integration with industry and across allied countries is essential. Additionally, it is crucial to develop talent within the various military bodies, accompanied by a collaborative and innovative mindset, focusing efforts on data acquisition and analysis and building processes and tools to use it.

For more information contact Carolina Cipres at ccipres@zlc.edu.es